👳When MANMOHAN SINGH speaks, which he seldom does, it is worth listening. But his speech in Rajya Sabha today on the demonetisation issue was a let-down. Not because he is known for great speeches, but because what he said made only partial sense.
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Another point he made was that demonetisation would reduce the GDP by two percentage points, but we won’t know if this is right till the year is over. But the best estimates of professional forecasters are far below what MANMOHAN SINGH’s crystal-ball has indicated. Goldman Sachs sees a 1.1 percent fall, Care Ratings 0.5-0.3 percent, Emkay Global 0.9 percent, Icra 0.4 percent, and ICICI Securities by 0.4 percent. Barring Ambit Capital, which adopted a faulty methodology to come up with an unbelievable GDP drop of 3.3 percent from earlier estimates, not one projection comes anywhere near what Manmohan Singh’s claims.
The third point Singh made was that demonetisation would "erode our people’s confidence in the currency system and in the banking system." For good measure, he added: "I would like to know from the prime minister the names of any countries he may think of where people have deposited their money in the banks but they are not allowed to withdraw their money. This alone, I think, is enough to condemn what has been done in the name of (demonetisation…".
Whether demonetisation and the replacement of old notes with new ones are enough to damage confidence in the banking system is questionable. One would have thought that prolonged inflationary policies through unabated money printing — which was what happened during UPA 2, when the fiscal deficit crossed 6 percent — would have done more to debase the currency than a demonetisation to replace currency notes. And just to refresh his memory, the first major bank scam happened during his watch in 1992, when Harshad Mehta actually looted bank cash to make hay in the stock markets. And as for restrictions on people drawing their own cash, any banking system can — at times — place such restrictions. Banks even now place restrictions on daily cash withdrawals from ATMs. When banks fail, then too restrictions happen.
Singh also seems to have forgotten the Indira Gandhi emergency, when the government froze a big chunk of citizens’ earnings in compulsory deposits in order to contain inflation. If that did not bother Singh, one wonders why the orderly withdrawal of deposits is a great curtailment of citizens’ rights.
The PM is addressing the issue on day to day basis.the opposition parties are severely critical of the style of functioning of the government .Only the common man is suffering for shortage of funds in the form of currency notes.The business is stand still. Black money in fact is a convertible proposition .The currency notes are not kept as such those are convertible in gold,bullion real estate, land, shares in stock exchange and in several other measures which are devised. Even on the fateful night of november 8 the jewellers allegedly converted the currency notes in gold and other ornaments to encourage the black money holders to escape.The country is engaged in the sole issue of black money.The national economy is also shattering because of political and bureaucratic rampant corruption but such corrupt high uo themselves are in the drivers seat.As such the PM would have to be very cautious in addition to adopting ferocious postures.
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